The hottest natural rubber futures hit a low in Sh

Natural rubber futures Shanghai Rubber low support

this week, although Tokyo rubber fell deeply across the board, Shanghai Rubber low showed support, the main contract ru6, and the tearing expansion speed is directly related to the tensile speed of the gripper. The installation position of the reversing switch is connected to 10 and runs to around 22800 yuan (ton price, the same below)

the supply pressure at home and abroad is still heavy, and the rubber price continues to rise, making Thai rubber farmers grow rubber on a large scale; From January to may, the rubber export volume of Indonesia increased by 9% year-on-year to 894000 tons, and the output is expected to increase by 7% to 2.43 million tons this year; Vietnam exported 345000 tons of natural rubber in the first seven months of this year, with an export volume of 567million US dollars, an increase of 42% and more than double year-on-year respectively. At the end of July, the stock of natural rubber warehouse in qiongdian production area in China reached 25000 tons and 30000 tons respectively, the stock of private rubber warehouse was 20000 tons, the stock of futures market was 30000 tons, and the total stock exceeded 100000 tons, so the inventory pressure was heavy

the position of Shanghai Jiao is relatively stable. The main contract ru610 of Shanghai Jiao is more than unprecedented. The comparison of the position structure of 20 main players shows that nearly half of the main players of both sides are long and short positions. Among the main forces in many ways, there are main funds with the background of production area spot 2, the principle of traditional power line zigzag testing machine, the principle of traditional power line zigzag testing machine; Among the main short sellers, only a few spot traders hold short orders, and there are generally net short positions. The main speculative funds of many parties adopt the strategy of buying far and selling near reverse speculative intertemporal arbitrage, while the main speculative funds of the short side adopt the strategy of buying near and selling far forward forward intertemporal arbitrage. Comparative analysis shows that after the position of Shanghai Rubber fell below 50000 hands on the 2nd day, it has always maintained the scale of more than 40000 hands, of which ru610 basically maintained at more than 30000 hands, and the position is steadily increasing. At present, the price spread of ru608, ru609 and ru610 contracts has significantly converged, and there is a reverse discount of near high and far low. From August to October, the tapping volume in natural rubber production areas at home and abroad will generally turn from increase to decrease, and the spot rubber price in production areas will also show the characteristics of rising from the seasonal low point in the middle of the year. Therefore, during the decline of Shanghai Jiaotong, the forward contracts are seriously oversold, and the future market may rebound technically

import costs limit the decline of Shanghai rubber. At present, the spot rubber price in the domestic qiongdian production area is more than 22800 yuan. Considering the normal premium of 200 ~ 300 yuan between the production and marketing areas, the short-term and long-term contract price of Shanghai rubber still remains upside down to the spot rubber price in the qiongdian production area. According to the spot price of No. 20 standard glue in the international production area of 2280 US dollars and the import tariff of 5%, the dutiable import cost is about 23150 yuan; The import tariff of general trade reaches 20%, so the import cost will far exceed the Shanghai rubber futures price. The technical indicators, use methods, operation specifications, etc. of the familiar equipment will significantly limit the room for the Shanghai rubber futures price to fall

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content