The hottest natural rubber first suppresses and th

Natural rubber: first suppress and then raise, wide range shock

2 as a shareholder, the price of natural rubber came out of the "roller coaster" market in 2011. The price of natural rubber rose sharply in January, reaching a historical high of 43000 yuan (ton price, the same below) in mid February, and then began to decline all the way, finally breaking the integer level of 24000 yuan, which is now about 26000 yuan

ANRPC report shows that driven by the expansion of output area and the increase of average unit yield, the output of natural rubber will continue to grow in 2012. It is widely predicted in the industry that China's tire production situation will not be optimistic in the first half of this year, and the demand for natural rubber will decrease; In the second half of the year, due to the expectation that the United States will lift the punitive tariff on China's ordinary passenger tires that can be used more than 100000 times, China's tire industry may gradually improve, and the demand for natural rubber will gradually recover. It can be inferred that the natural rubber price in 2012 will be suppressed first and then increased, with a wide range of fluctuations

the overall supply continues to grow

as China depends on imports for more than 80% of natural rubber, changes in the global supply of natural rubber will have a direct impact on the price of natural rubber

anrpc report shows that the global natural rubber production increased by about 5.6% to 10.023 million tons in 2011; In 2012, driven by the expansion of 162000 hectares of output area and the average increase of 19 kg per hectare, the output of natural rubber is expected to increase by 3.6% to 10.388 million tons

according to the statistical data of ANRPC and the international natural rubber research organization (IRSG), the global natural rubber planting area is about 11million hectares, and the production capacity is close to 10million tons/year, of which the production capacity of ANRPC member countries accounts for 92% - 96% of the total global production capacity. The high price of natural rubber in the past two years has stimulated the enthusiasm of rubber farmers. The output of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia increased steadily, and Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia and other countries also vigorously developed the natural rubber industry. The increase in the overall supply of natural rubber has become an indisputable fact, and the supply of natural rubber will enter a peak period in the short term

the output of natural rubber in China is relatively small, accounting for about 6% of the total natural rubber in the world. If the weather is normal in 2012, China's natural rubber production will increase by about 5%, slightly higher than the average growth of the world's natural rubber

the first half of 2012 saw a downward shock

it is expected that China's tire production in the first half of 2012 will not be optimistic, and the demand for natural rubber will decrease, with a large decline from January to February, and may improve after March. Due to the large domestic natural rubber inventory at present, the import volume may decline in the first half of the year, with a large decline from January to February

according to the analysis of the national passenger car joint conference, the decline of the domestic automobile market will continue until the first quarter of 2012 or even longer. The China Association of automobile manufacturers has lowered the growth forecast of the domestic automobile market in 2012 to 3%, while the growth forecast in July 2011 was still 5%. Corresponding to the decline in automobile production and sales data, the demand for tires has gradually decreased. Moreover, at present, the tire inventory of tire enterprises and dealers is at a high level. According to the statistics of tire branch of China Rubber Industry Association, the inventory of 45 major tire enterprises in China reached 17.12 billion yuan in October 2011, an increase of 46.6% over the same period last year. If the downstream consumption cannot be started, there will be great turbulence in the measurement force of the series dynamometer with fixture in the tire trade link. At the beginning of the year, traders are likely to give up the monthly sales rebate and stop purchasing, which will lead to a greater impact on the natural rubber market

many adverse factors, such as weak domestic downstream consumption, high imported rubber inventory, synthetic rubber sales and sluggish spot market transactions, resonated in the first half of the year, putting pressure on the price of natural rubber. Therefore, the domestic natural rubber price was affected by many factors in the first half of the year, which may be mainly downward, and the lowest may be down to the natural rubber cost price and the future market support of 22000 yuan

gradually rebounded in the second half of the year

in the second half of the year, due to the expectation that the United States will lift the punitive tariffs on China's passenger tires, the domestic tire industry may gradually improve, the demand for natural rubber will gradually recover, and the import of natural rubber will be relatively active

in 2012, China will implement the steady growth policy, and the possibility of economic recovery in Europe and the United States will increase in the second half of the year. The peripheral situation will support the natural rubber market, which is conducive to the natural rubber futures market. The low price of natural rubber will also reduce the enthusiasm of natural rubber mining and cutting, and the output of natural rubber will be affected to a certain extent. The reluctance of rubber farmers to sell will also reduce the supply of natural rubber. In terms of demand, since the golden season of transportation generally comes after July, a small peak of procurement may be formed in the second half of the year. These factors are conducive to the rebound of natural rubber prices from the bottom up. The height of the rebound depends on whether the loose degree of monetary policy can promote the economic growth of knowledge and innovation investment of 100million euros in the Netherlands announced by DSM in May 2012, thereby enhancing the demand for natural rubber downstream. The price limit of natural rubber is expected to be around 30000 yuan in the second half of the year

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content