Shanghai Jiaotong may carry out intermediate adjus

2022-10-24
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In the third quarter, HuJiao may launch an intermediate adjustment

a round of rising market started at the end of April this year, making HuJiao a dazzling "Star" in the domestic futures market in the second quarter. After a month of rapid rise, Shanghai Jiaotong Rubber Co., Ltd. walked out of a local island reversal pattern at the end of May and early June, but this did not weaken its rising momentum. Since then, stimulated by the bullish fundamentals and the expectation of insufficient supply in the peak season of rubber production, a large number of funds entered the market and actively went long. In just 20 trading days, the Shanghai rubber futures price was pushed up from 24250 yuan/ton to 28490 yuan/ton, a new high in the past year. At present, the futures price of the main 809 contract has fallen back from the previous high to about 27000 yuan/ton, and some funds have gradually begun to move to the 811 contract

this year, the supply and demand of the global rubber market is basically balanced.

the world rubber research organization (IRSG) predicted at the beginning of the year that the global consumption of natural rubber this year was 9.881 million tons, the output was 10.197 million tons, and the surplus was 316000 tons, showing a slight surplus of supply and demand as last year. The Ministry of agriculture of Thailand estimates that the production of natural rubber in the country this year is about 3.2 million tons, an increase of 6% over last year, and the export volume will increase by 2% to 2.7 million tons. On May 20, the executive director of the Indonesian Rubber Association said that the country would produce 2.922 million tons of natural rubber in 2008, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year; The Secretary General of Vietnam Rubber Association also said that the output of natural rubber in the country is expected to increase by 8% to 650000 tons in 2008. At the beginning of June, an official of the Malaysian Ministry of planting industry revealed that the export volume of natural rubber in Malaysia will reach 1.16 million tons this year, an increase of 13.7% over 2007, and the output may reach 1.26 million tons. The Philippine Ministry of Agriculture said that the country's natural rubber production in 2008 may increase by 10% to more than 443000 tons

however, affected by natural disasters and rainstorm weather, the global supply of natural rubber in the first half of this year was significantly worse than expected, but the demand was still strong. If there is no major natural disaster in the later period, the supply and demand situation may change greatly in the second half of the year, that is, the supply tends to increase and the demand gradually cools down. The author believes that if the idea of maintaining the balance between supply and demand throughout the year is maintained, the operating range of natural rubber prices should be seen from the relevant countries of "one belt and one road", which will rise from 17000-25000 yuan/ton in 2007 to 20000-30000 yuan/ton

the supply of natural rubber may increase significantly in the third quarter

in the second quarter, heavy rain continued in some parts of the main natural rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia, which affected the rubber cutting work. At present, the output of raw materials in Thailand has not yet returned to the normal level (only 70% - 80% of the normal level). The serious reluctance of rubber farmers and secondary distributors has kept the USS price of raw rubber in Thailand high. The high price of raw materials makes the rubber processing plant minimize the purchase of raw materials and only maintain the supply of long-term contract customers, which intensifies the tension in the supply of natural rubber in the short term. At the same time, the price of Tianjiao futures continued to hit new highs. Suppliers were short of raw materials and were unwilling to give up the current high price and implement the early low price contract. Some Thai and Malaysian Rubber merchants delayed delivery to overseas customers, further exacerbating the tension in the spot market. The rubber cutting situation in Yunnan and Hainan, the main production areas of natural rubber in China, has been relatively normal, and the trading and investment situation of China rubber is good. However, the China Meteorological Administration said that although La Nina has weakened recently, it will continue until July

the author believes that if the weather improves in the third quarter, new rubber will be listed intensively with the vigorous development of the global population, which will increase the supply and the price of rubber may fall sharply. If the weather is still bad and major natural disasters occur, not only will the rubber cutting be delayed, but also the output will decline. In that case, the space for the decline of rubber price will be very limited

the growth rate of natural rubber demand may further slow down if it doesn't need to be used.

according to the statistics of the China Association of automobile manufacturers, in May 2008, the production of 854100 vehicles decreased by 12.96% month on month and increased by 20.20% year on year; 835500 vehicles were sold, with a month on month decrease of 9.44% and a year-on-year increase of 17.04%. In the second half of the year, the growth rate of automobile sales may slow down significantly. The main reasons for the slowdown in the growth of car sales are the rapid decline in residents' property income and the rise in the retail price of refined oil in China due to the decline in the stock market. For commercial vehicles and large and medium-sized buses, domestic demand will be restrained in the second half of the year because large and medium-sized buses will be implemented according to the environmental protection standards for heavy vehicles on July 1. As for heavy trucks, their cyclical decline is significantly higher than that of cars. Under the weight based charging system, heavy trucks were replaced intensively last year, and the "overdraft" consumption and weight based charging of national II heavy trucks are coming to an end, making it very difficult for heavy trucks to achieve high growth

the measured values obtained may also be different

the author believes that the tire industry will maintain a good growth momentum in the second half of this year due to better downstream demand, but the growth rate will be significantly slower than that in the first half of this year. First, the growth rate of automobile production and sales will slow down significantly in the second half of the year. Second, the domestic and international market situation faced by the development of tire industry is more severe. On the one hand, the prices of natural rubber, synthetic rubber, carbon black and steel cord, the main raw materials for tire production, rose sharply. On the other hand, a series of policies and measures issued by the state, such as the tight monetary policy, the newly implemented labor contract law, and the reduction of tire export tax rebates, have directly led to the decline in the economic benefits of tire enterprises. According to the statistics of the tire branch of China Rubber Industry Association, of the 43 member units, 9 have lost money, with a loss rate of 20.9%, a loss of 72.28 million yuan, and more than 10 enterprises' benefits have declined. The trend of high-cost operation in the tire industry will not be short-term, and may be more severe in the second half of the year. In addition, China's export trade environment continues to deteriorate, overseas anti-dumping incidents occur frequently, and the focus of disputes has spread to high-tech radial tires

the current round of rise of Shanghai rubber has been basically in place

at present, the import cost of RSS3 in Thailand is about 30000 yuan/ton, which is still higher than that of domestic rubber, but the import cost of composite rubber is about 28000 yuan/ton, which is basically equivalent to the price of domestic spot rubber. Due to the relatively good quality of imported rubber, the advantages of domestic rubber have basically disappeared. In terms of synthetic rubber, styrene butadiene rubber is 23000 yuan/ton, and cis-butyl rubber is 24000 yuan/ton. According to the normal price difference relationship, the high price of natural rubber should be around 27000 yuan/ton, but the early price has been close to 28000 yuan/ton. Therefore, the price advantage of natural rubber over synthetic rubber has basically disappeared

in addition, due to the strong rise in crude oil prices, the price of synthetic rubber is also running in the upward channel this year. With the implementation of the policy of increasing the production of refined oil and reducing the production of ethylene by the two major domestic oil groups, the price of synthetic rubber will form a strong support. In the third quarter, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber is likely to exceed 25000 yuan/ton, which shows that even if the price of natural rubber falls sharply, the space below 25000 yuan/ton is very limited

conclusion

last week, Shanghai Jiao fell below the trend line of this round of rise, but strongly supported by the 30 day moving average, the futures price rushed above the trend line again last Friday and returned to the rising channel. Although the recent trend is hesitant, the main bulls continue to increase their positions, which limits the decline of futures prices and may rise again. It is not ruled out that it is possible to challenge 30000 points. If the intermediate adjustment market is launched, there will be strong support in the 26000-27000 point intensive trading area, which will test the 25000 point integer level, and the downward momentum will be fully released at 24000 points

from the supply and demand situation in the third quarter and the price structure of the Tianjiao market, the room for Shanghai Jiao to rise has been very limited. The foundation of the main 809 contract above 28000 is not solid enough, and the 811 contract in the third quarter may have short opportunities

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

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